10 Future Web Trends

We're well into the current era of the Web, commonly referred to as Web 2.0. Features of this phase of the Web include search, social networks, online media (music, video, etc), content aggregation and syndication (RSS), mashups (APIs), and much more. Currently the Web is still mostly accessed via a PC, but we're starting to see more Web excitement from mobile devices (e.g. iPhone) and television sets (e.g. XBox Live 360).
What then can we expect from the next 10 or so years on the Web? As NatC commented in this week's poll, the biggest impact of the Web in 10 years time won't necessarily be via a computer screen - "your online activity will be mixed with your presence, travels, objects you buy or act with." Also a lot of crossover will occur among the 10 trends below (and more) and there will be Web technologies that become enormously popular that we can't predict now.
Bearing all that in mind, here are 10 Web trends to look out for over the next 10 years...

1. Semantic Web

Sir Tim Berners-Lee's vision for a Semantic Web has been The Next Big Thing for a long time now. Indeed it's become almost mythical, like Moby Dick. In a nutshell, the Semantic Web is about machines talking to machines. It's about making the Web more 'intelligent', or as Berners-Lee himself described it: computers "analyzing all the data on the Web – the content, links, and transactions between people and computers." At other times, Berners-Lee has described it as "the application of weblike design to data" - for example designing for re-use of information.
As Alex Iskold wrote in The Road to the Semantic Web, the core idea of the Semantic Web is to create the meta data describing data, which will enable computers to process the meaning of things. Once computers are equipped with semantics, they will be capable of solving complex semantical optimization problems.

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So when will the Semantic Web arrive? The building blocks are here already: RDF, OWL, microformats are a few of them. But as Alex noted in his post, it will take some time to annotate the world's information and then to capture personal information in the right way. Some companies, such as Hakia and Powerset and Alex's own AdaptiveBlue, are actively trying to implement the Semantic Web. So we are getting close, but we are probably a few years off still before the big promise of the Semantic Web is fulfilled.

Semantic Web pic by dullhunk

2. Artificial Intelligence

Possibly the ultimate Next Big Thing in the history of computing, AI has been the dream of computer scientists since 1950 - when Alan Turing introduced the Turing test to test a machine's capability to participate in human-like conversation. In the context of the Web, AI means making intelligent machines. In that sense, it has some things in common with the Semantic Web vision.

We've only begun to scratch the surface of AI on the Web. Amazon.com has attempted to introduce aspects of AI with Mechanical Turk, their task management service. It enables computer programs to co-ordinate the use of human intelligence to perform tasks which computers are unable to do. Since its launch on 2 November 2005, Mechanical Turk has gradually built up a following - there is a forum for "Turkers" called Turker Nation, which appears to have light-to-medium level patronage. However we reported in January that Mturk isn't being used as much as the initial hype period in Nov-Dec 05.

Nevertheless, AI has a lot of promise on the Web. AI techniques are being used in "search 2.0" companies like Hakia and Powerset. Numenta is an exciting new company by tech legend Jeff Hawkins, which is attempting to build a new, brain-like computing paradigm - with neural networks and cellular automata. In english this means that Numenta is trying to enable computers to tackle problems that come easy to us humans, like recognizing faces or seeing patterns in music. But since computers are much faster than humans when it comes to computation, we hope that new frontiers will be broken - enabling us to solve the problems that were unreachable before.

3. Virtual Worlds

Second Life gets a lot of mainstream media attention as a future Web system. But at a recent Supernova panel that Sean Ammirati attended, the discussion touched on many other virtual world opportunities. The following graphic summarizes it well:

Looking at Korea as an example, as the 'young generation' grows up and infrastructure is built out, virtual worlds will become a vibrant market all over the world over the next 10 years.

It's not just about digital life, but also making our real life more digital. As Alex Iskold explained, on one hand we have the rapid rise of Second Life and other virtual worlds. On the other we are beginning to annotate our planet with digital information, via technologies like Google Earth.

4. Mobile

Mobile Web is another Next Big Thing on slow boil. It's already big in parts of Asia and Europe, and it received a kick in the US market this year with the release of Apple's iPhone. This is just the beginning. In 10 years time there will be many more location-aware services available via mobile devices; such as getting personalized shopping offers as you walk through your local mall, or getting map directions while driving your car, or hooking up with your friends on a Friday night. Look for the big Internet companies like Yahoo and Google to become key mobile portals, alongside the mobile operators.

Companies like Nokia, Sony-Ericsson, Palm, Blackberry and Microsoft have been active in the Mobile Web for years now, but one of the main issues with Mobile Web has always been usability. The iPhone has a revolutionary UI that makes it easier for users to browse the Web, using zooming, pinching and other methods. Also, as Alex Iskold noted, the iPhone is a strategy that may expand Apple's sphere of influence, from web browsing to social networking and even possibly search.

So even despite the iPhone hype, in the US at least (and probably other countries when it arrives) the iPhone will probably be seen in 10 years time as the breakthrough Mobile Web device.

5. Attention Economy

The Attention Economy is a marketplace where consumers agree to receive services in exchange for their attention. Examples include personalized news, personalized search, alerts and recommendations to buy. The Attention Economy is about the consumer having choice - they get to choose where their attention is 'spent'. Another key ingredient in the attention game is relevancy. As long as the consumer sees relevant content, he/she is going to stick around - and that creates more opportunities to sell.

Expect to see this concept become more important to the Web's economy over the next decade. We're already seeing it with the likes of Amazon and Netflix, but there is a lot more opportunity yet to explore from startups.

Image from The Attention Economy: An Overview, by Alex Iskold

6. Web Sites as Web Services

Alex Iskold wrote in March that as more and more of the Web is becoming remixable, the entire system is turning into both a platform and the database. Major web sites are going to be transformed into web services - and will effectively expose their information to the world. Such transformations are never smooth - e.g. scalability is a big issue and legal aspects are never simple. But, said Alex, it is not a question of if web sites become web services, but when and how.

The transformation will happen in one of two ways. Some web sites will follow the example of Amazon, del.icio.us and Flickr and will offer their information via a REST API. Others will try to keep their information proprietary, but it will be opened via mashups created using services like Dapper, Teqlo and Yahoo! Pipes. The net effect will be that unstructured information will give way to structured information - paving the road to more intelligent computing.

Note that we can also see this trend play out currently with widgets and especially Facebook in 2007. Perhaps in 10 years time the web services landscape will be much more open, because the 'walled garden' problem is still with us in 2007.

Image from Web 3.0: When Web Sites Become Web Services, by Alex Iskold

7. Online Video / Internet TV

This is a trend that has already exploded on the Web - but you still get the sense there's a lot more to come yet. In October 2006 Google acquired the hottest online video property on the planet, YouTube. Later on that same month, news came out that the founders of Kazaa and Skype were building an Internet TV service, nicknamed The Venice Project (later named Joost). In 2007, YouTube continues to dominate. Meanwhile Internet TV services are slowly getting off the ground.

Our network blog last100 has an excellent overview of the current Internet TV landscape, with reviews of 8 Internet TV apps. Read/WriteWeb's Josh Catone also reviewed 3 of them - Joost, Babelgum, Zattoo.

It's fair to say that in 10 years time, Internet TV will be totally different to what it is today. Higher quality pictures, more powerful streaming, personalization, sharing, and much more - it's all coming over the next decade. Perhaps the big question is: how will the current mainstream TV networks (NBC, CNN, etc) adapt?

Zattoo, from Internet Killed The Television Star: Reviews of Joost, Babelgum, Zattoo, and More, by Josh Catone

8. Rich Internet Apps

As the current trend of hybrid web/desktop apps continues, expect to see RIA (rich internet apps) continue to increase in use and functionality. Adobe's AIR platform (Adobe Integrated Runtime) is one of the leaders, along with Microsoft with its Windows Presentation Foundation. Also in the mix is Laszlo with its open source OpenLaszlo platform and there are several other startups offering RIA platforms. Let's not forget also that Ajax is generally considered to be an RIA - it remains to be seen though how long Ajax lasts, or whether there will be a '2.0'.

As Ryan Stewart wrote for Read/WriteWeb back in April 2006 (well before he joined Adobe), "Rich Internet Apps allow sophisticated effects and transitions that are important in keeping the user engaged. This means developers will be able to take the amazing changes in the Web for granted and start focusing on a flawless experience for the users. It is going to be an exciting time for anyone involved in building the new Web, because the interfaces are finally catching up with the content."

The past year has proven Ryan right, with Adobe and Microsoft duking it out with RIA technologies. And there's a lot more innovation to happen yet, so in 10 years time I can't wait to see what the lay of the RIA land is!

9. International Web

As of 2007, the US is still the major market in the Web. But in 10 years time, things might be very different. China is often touted as a growth market, but other countries with big populations will also grow - India and African nations for example.

For most web 2.0 apps and websites (R/WW included), the US market makes up over 50% of their users. Indeed, comScore reported in November 2006 that 3/4 of traffic to top websites is international. comScore said that 14 of the top 25 US Web properties now attract more visitors from outside the US than from within. That includes the top 5 US properties - Yahoo! Sites, Time Warner Network, Microsoft, Google Sites, and eBay.

However, it is still early days and the revenues are not big in international markets at this point. In 10 years time, revenue will probably be flowing from the International Web.

10. Personalization

Personalization has been a strong theme in 2007, particularly with Google. Indeed Read/WriteWeb did a feature week on Personalizing Google. But you can see this trend play out among a lot of web 2.0 startups and companies - from last.fm to MyStrands to Yahoo homepage and more.

What can we expect over the next decade? Recently we asked Sep Kamvar, Lead Software Engineer for Personalization at Google, whether there will be a 'Personal PageRank' system in the future. He replied:

"We have various levels of personalization. For those who are signed up for Web History, we have the deepest personalization, but even for those who are not signed up for Web History, we personalize your results based on what country you are searching from. As we move forward, personalization will continue to be a gradient; the more you share with Google, the more tailored your results will be."

If nothing else, it'll be fascinating to track how Google uses personalization over the coming years - and how it deals with the privacy issues.

The Microsoft future according to Bill Gates

Microsoft chairman Bill Gates is proud of his latest acquisitions. A plain, steel-case watch and an extremely ordinary-looking mobile phone. The watch is not a designer model costing a million dollars and the telephone isn't studded with diamonds. So why is the world's richest man, worth over $50 billion, so excited about these products?

For a very simple reason. These products, along with several others that are on the way, will play a crucial role in defining the future of Microsoft, the world's largest software company. The watch, called a SPOT (Smart Personal Objects Technology), is fitted with Microsoft's latest software innovations and can do quite a few very smart things.

Gates's SPOT watch has a miniature central processing unit and a small but powerful FM radio antenna. These features, combined with Microsoft software, allow the wearer to access information, such as local news, weather, sports updates, personal messages and appointment reminders.

Microsoft has already tied up with various companies, including Japan's Citizen, to produce and market these watches, which will flood the US and Canadian markets in the coming months.

The Microsoft-powered mobile phone is already out in the market. The telephone, called Smartphone, has all the trappings of the latest models: a high-resolution color screen that allows you to play games, check e-mail and images and also browse the Web. But those are now run-of-the-mill features. So what's special about Microsoft's newest gadget?

Smartphone comes loaded with Microsoft's Windows software, something that almost every potential mobile phone user is familiar with. Microsoft is betting that since people use Windows in their offices and homes, having the same software loaded on their mobile will attract buyers to go for Smartphones rather than the current 3G-capable phones that come with software that may not be compatible with Windows. The Smartphone has all the usual Microsoft products: Outlook Express, Internet Explorer, MSN Messenger and Windows Media Player.

Microsoft has already tied up with a number of handset manufacturers, including Samsung and Motorola, to roll out the Smartphone. However, Microsoft has run into opposition from market leader Nokia, which has chosen to use the C++ based Symbian Operating System for its own mobiles.

Several players - including Sony Ericsson, Samsung, Panasonic and Motorola - have also agreed to sell phones with Symbian software. As Nokia has over a third of the global mobile telephone market, it can definitely offer a serious challenge to Microsoft in the dominance of the mobile phone software market. DoCoMo, the main trend setter, has also shut out Microsoft in favour of Symbian OS and Linux.

Meanwhile, Microsoft is fighting Sony and Sega in the video game console market, which it entered nearly four years ago with its Xbox console. These battles are clear signs that Microsoft is increasingly diversifying into consumer goods.

As technologies converge and an increasing amount of domestic and office equipment becomes interconnected and wired to the Internet, Microsoft sees new opportunities in new areas. The company has increased its research and development budget and will spend nearly $7 billion on R&D this year, far more than any other IT company.

How do you spend $7 billion on research and development? If you're Microsoft, you literally build the future. At the company's headquarters in Redmond, Washington, Microsoft has constructed a "concept" home that reveals how we may live just a few years from now.

 As you reach the front door, you are welcomed by a flat screen, rather than a doorbell. You can use this screen to ring the doorbell, talk to the person inside the home or leave a message, which can be accessed by telephone or e-mail.

If you're the homeowner, walk through the door and the curtains go up, letting light in, and the entire house is soon subtly illuminated. The hi-fi will access its database to play your favorite music, and the air-conditioning will be preset to the temperature you prefer.

As you move to the kitchen, you take the ingredients for your lunch - say, flour, a piece of fish and a few stalks of broccoli - to a networked table. This will activate a system that will immediately offer you a range of appropriate recipes. Your smart microwave will fix the dish for you, consulting the recipe you prefer, via the Internet.

Practically every device in the house is a "smart" device, and Microsoft has really gone the distance in showing how innovative the company can be and what an important role it could play in our lives in the future. Microsoft denies that it will get into manufacturing consumer products like telephones or microwave ovens, saying that it will drive innovation in these products by coming up with new ideas about what these products can do and networking them.

With initiatives like this, the software giant is clearly moving away from being almost entirely focused on corporate clients to targeting individual consumers. Bill Gates admits that such a shift is happening.

"Yes, we are becoming increasingly consumer-oriented," he told Arabies TRENDS. "Today, we get perhaps 10 percent of our revenue from retail consumers, and this figure may double in the next decade.''

This shift is a sign that Microsoft is at a crossroads. The company is getting into new, exciting businesses that could catapult it from being a software giant to a major player in almost all aspects of human life.

But, at the same time, it is also facing unprecedented challenges in almost every sphere of its current business where it has enjoyed market dominance. Where are these challenges coming from?

Regulators, governments and, of course, Microsoft's business rivals. The company is currently negotiating a settlement with the European Commission, which has accused Microsoft of abusing its monopoly position in the software market through the Windows operating system platform. The Europeans are especially concerned about the bundling of Microsoft's media player in the new versions of Windows, saying that it will hurt other media player companies, such as Real Media.

The case in Brussels has been going on for over a year, and a decision is likely during the first quarter of 2004. The Europeans have suggested that either Microsoft remove Media Player from Windows or that it allows other media players access to the operating system.

Microsoft is unhappy with either option, but the company realizes that European Union (EU) anti-trust authorities could prove far tougher than their US counterparts, who reached a settlement with Microsoft that was timid in comparison with the initial threats of a breakup of the company in order to end its monopoly.

Although Microsoft has been negotiating with the EU and held a special three-day hearing in November, the company seems prepared for a tough ruling from Brussels.

Gates recently told Arabies TRENDS, "If we reach an agreement, then that'll be a good thing. If we can't, then there's a next stage in their process." The next stage, of course, is for the matter to be settled in court. 

 The EU case is important for the company, but this is clearly not the biggest headache for Gates or Steve Ballmer, Microsoft's chief executive officer. Right now, almost all the energies of Microsoft's top brass seem to be focused on fighting Linux, an open-source operating system that has been developed and promoted heavily by Microsoft's main rivals in the business - primarily IBM, Sun, Novell and Oracle.

Although Linux has been around for over a decade, the operating system has only recently begun to make its presence felt in the international arena. In the corporate world, Linux-based servers have seen rapid growth and, since 1998, Linux has been the fastest growing system, outpacing every other player in the field. According to International Data Corporation, Linux shipments in the first half of 2003 grew over 51 percent in volume terms, while those of Microsoft's Windows grew by a much slower 21 percent.

Even though Windows-based servers still enjoy a 4:1 advantage over Linux in terms of the total number of servers in the market, Linux's continuing rapid growth is a clear cause for worry in Redmond.

To add to Microsoft's troubles, a number of governments around the world - from Japan to Brazil and several in the Middle East, too - are now looking at Linux as an option for their operating system needs. This has created a sense of panic within Microsoft, with CEO Steve Ballmer flying to various countries in order to convince governments that switching to Linux would be folly.

Publicly, though, Microsoft maintains a disdain for Linux and its supporters. Martin Taylor, general manager of competitive strategy at Microsoft, dismisses Linux offhand, saying that although Linux has been around for as long as Windows NT, Microsoft has garnered a huge chunk of the market. "Most of the gains that Linux is making today are at the expense of Unix. We are not affected," he says, "but other Unix-based players are."

However, Gates is more realistic about the challenge posed by Linux. "We have been competing for a long while and are still competing with a number of companies on a range of products. We compete on operating systems, on the Xbox, on browsers," he told Arabies TRENDS. "But, yes, in a way, on some parameters, Linux is the toughest competition that we have ever had."

Software security is another major challenge for Microsoft. Over the past few years, Microsoft has become one of the most popular targets for hackers, who have been attacking the company's sites and operating systems, using the weaknesses of Windows to wreak havoc on the Internet.

The attacks have increased in number and severity over the years. And last year was one of the worst that Microsoft has seen. The month of August alone saw four major Internet worm attacks, including the notorious Blaster and a new version of the SoBig worm.

What is worrying for Microsoft is not just that the attacks are becoming more vicious and damaging, but that they are also coming sooner rather than later. Most often, hackers strike once Microsoft releases a security patch, fixing a vulnerability in its software. The hackers reverse engineer the patch to find the weak spot and then attack again. While Microsoft says that it has drastically reduced the number of weak spots in its new software, the hackers are getting smarter and quicker.

Explains Scott Charney, Chief Trustworthy Computing Strategist at Microsoft, "Two years ago, the first attack came 331 days after a security patch was released, while the recent Blaster attack came barely 25 days days after the patch.

A future without Microsoft

It’s a world of Unix servers

Regardless of how much hype Microsoft creates, the world still runs on Unix—and most of those servers are GNU/Linux machines. Your Netgear router has Linux in it. Your Internet provider is very likely to be running on GNU/Linux servers. So is your office. It’s a little hard to come by hard numbers, because anybody can download CentOS and deploy a top-class server in minutes. Each GNU/Linux server has stolen market share to the proprietary, expensive Windows NT—and Microsoft is immensely unlikely to get that market back.

Windows Mobile is tottering, Android is coming strong

Windows Mobile has had a very hard life penetrating the mobile market; today, in 2008, Windows Mobile is still tottering. The only really usable device I’ve seen using it was one made by HTC: Andrea was showing it to me, pointing out that without HTC’s proprietary UI extensions (which are very iPhone-ish), HTC PDAs would be mobile nightmares. I am holding my breath, waiting for the HTC Dream to be released: that’s an Android-based PDA which should make the iPhone feel like a text-based terminal. And yes, Android is based on Linux. I suspect that once people start noticing Android-based devices (and they will, once HTC Dream comes out), the Windows Mobile market will shrink even further.

A computer on everybody’s lap, not everybody’s desk

Bill Gates had a dream: a PC (with Windows installed) on everybody’s desk. Instead, the computing world is taking a different turn: computers are smaller and smaller, and people are getting used to carrying them around. A lot. In 2008, laptop sales are supposed to overtake PC sales. This has changed the rules in several ways: laptops are generally slower, and putting Vista on most laptops today is like putting an elephant on a child’s chair: it will crash under the elephant’s weight. Also, laptops tend not to be used as gaming systems, but as internet terminals. Finally, laptops are still seen as “secondary machines”, which complement people’s desktop computers.

So, more and more people today are installing GNU/Linux (specifically, Ubuntu) on their laptops: it doesn’t matter if you can’t play many games on it, it’s much much faster, it doesn’t get attacked by viruses and Trojans every other minute, it’s free, and well, it’s a good idea to install it even just to have a look at it. Dell offering GNU/Linux laptops (and then expanding the product line) made a huge difference to the GNU/Linux market. Others will soon follow suite.

A computer in everybody’s PDA, not everybody’s lap

I am writing this article using an EeePC (with Ubuntu Netbook Remix installed on it). Asus has created a new class of devices, the “ultra-portable” ones (or Netbooks, or sub-notebooks…). They are tiny low-cost machines that can be used to browse the web, write letters, and answer emails (or run magazines, which is what I do with mine). This market is big enough to convince Microsoft to resuscitate support for Windows XP /just for this very class of devices/. The problem stays: paying $55 for an OEM license of Windows XP is absurd if the computer itself costs $300. This is probably why the Asus EeePC came with GNU/Linux preinstalled. Unfortunately, it was an ugly fork of Xandros, but it was GNU/Linux nevertheless.

Other hardware makers now want a slice of this appealing cake. Canonical, the maker of Ubuntu, made sure that those makers’ distro of choice is Ubuntu, with its promising Ubuntu Netbook Remix project.

So, to sum up…

To sum up, the world in 2 years (2010) has a chance of being very different to what it’s like today. People’s phones/PDAs will run Android. Their sub-laptops/netbooks/sub-notebooks will run Ubuntu Netbook Remix. Their gaming machine of choice will be a Playstation or a Nintendo one (hopefully, Microsoft will run out of money to pour into the XBox). Their PCs will be collecting dust on a glorious desk, turned off for weeks on end. Their full-size laptops (if they have one) will run Vista or Ubuntu. They will be able to exchange ODF documents with their office and their friends, and will be using OpenOffice and Firefox.

Microsoft has very few weapons to fight this: Windows XP for sub-notebooks will be a joke, compared to a fully-featured Ubuntu Netbook Remix (which comes with OpenOffice); Windows Mobile will put them to shame when compared to Android, which will eat up the already small share Windows Mobile has managed to acquire in 11 years of existence; and while there might well be a computer on every desk, well, it will be the “old” computer, hardly ever turned on. Maybe for the kids to play with, and strictly not connected to the internet. So, it’s going to be interesting. Let’s just watch out for those silly patent laws which might turn this dream future into a small nightmare.

3 Surprise Scenarios for Microsoft's Future

Even after Microsoft reported record earnings a few days ago, one of its former executives has effectively written the company’s obituary in a New York Times op-ed piece.  Is Microsoft not savable? Here are three surprise scenarios that could have a lot of upside for the company.

It Branches Out As An Investment Holding Company. People familiar with the way Warren Buffett has run Berkshire Hathaway over the years know it’s seen enormous contributions to its earnings come from ownership of stocks, bonds and various types of fixed-income investments. Sure, it owns businesses ranging from GEICO to See’s Candy, but Buffett has driven billions of dollars of profit through simply owning shares in companies such as The Washington Post and Coca-Cola. Over the long run, Microsoft may well move toward this kind of future as an investment holding company, too. It has nearly $35 billion in cash and equivalents, which is more than 10 percent of its entire $246 billion market capitalization.

In today’s New York Times op-ed piece, Dick Brass takes his former employer to task for desperately struggling to come up with new product innovations, but failing miserably. “It is failing, even as it reports record earnings,” he writes. Indeed, Microsoft just reported a record $6.66 billion in quarterly earnings, but that’s primarily due to operating system and Office application suite sales, not new product innovation. It won’t happen overnight, but over time, if Microsoft invests its cash wisely, investment returns could start to approach the returns it gets from its software business. If the idea seems far-fetched, consider the fact that Red Hat gets nearly half of its earnings from investment activities.

It Finally Gets the Web Right. Microsoft has a long history of downright boneheaded moves on the web. Indeed, ranging from its multiyear efforts to turn MSN into a meaningful web brand to its current efforts with Bing, it has primarily generated billions of dollars of losses with its web efforts. This could change, though, especially as the web and the cloud become more central to how people use applications. Microsoft employs some of the smartest software engineers on the planet and is showing signs of commitment to the cloud with its Azure rollout.

I’m definitely in agreement with Matt Asay that more Microsoft leadership on the web would be good from a competitive standpoint, and Google’s founders have made the point more than once that their company’s brand is only “one click away” from competitors. Additionally, it’s worth remembering that the commercial web just isn’t that old. If Microsoft can find a way to combine success online with success in its traditional software business, the combination could be powerful.

The Ray Ozzie Era. Ray Ozzie holds the title of Chief Software Architect at Microsoft, which Bill Gates held as well. This is not an accident. Going back to his days behind Lotus Notes, I remember Ozzie as a product guy and a smart guy. Under Steve Ballmer, Microsoft’s stock has dropped significantly over the last 10 years, and Newsweeek, among others, has predicted that he won’t continue to run the company much longer. If anyone at Microsoft can introduce new products and innovation, it’s probably Ozzie. If he takes the CEO spot, as some predict he will soon, Microsoft could head in new directions.

In general, it’s hard to argue with Brass that the software company he used to work for has crafted its own “creative destruction,” but the cash registers continue to ring in Redmond, and there are smart people there. Over the next decade, Microsoft could easily pull a few rabbits out of its hat, and become a very different kind of company

Microsoft weighs in: 'the future of the web is HTML5'

Where Steve Jobs leads, Microsoft follows -- how's that for shaking up the hornet's nest? It's said in jest, of course, but we've just come across a post from the General Manager for Internet Explorer, Dean Hachamovitch, and the perspective expressed by him on the subject of web content delivery broadly agrees with the essay penned by Jobs yesterday on the very same subject. Echoing the Apple CEO's words, Hachamovitch describes HTML5 as "the future of the web," praising it for allowing content to be played without the need for plug-ins and with native hardware acceleration (in both Windows 7 and Mac OS X). He goes on to identify H.264 as the best video codec for the job -- so much so that it'll be the only one supported in IE9's HTML5 implementation -- before turning to the dreaded subject of Flash.

This is where it gets good, because he literally repeats one of Jobs' six pillars of Flash hate: "reliability, security, and performance" are not as good as Microsoft would like them. Where Hachamovitch diverges from Apple's messiah, however, is in describing Flash as an important part of "a good consumer experience on today's web," primarily because it's difficult for the typical consumer to access Flash-free content. Still, it's got to be depressing for Adobe's crew when the best thing either of the two biggest players in tech has to say about your wares is that they're ubiquitous. Wonder how Shantanu Narayen is gonna try and spin this one.